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Covid-19: The New Variant and the NHS December 29, 2020

Posted by mwidlake in COVID-19, ethics, rant, science.
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<<- Long term hopeful, short term worried

As I said in my blog post a couple of days ago, I’m very concerned about the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 that has been spreading through the UK and is now being found in countries all over the world. My main concern is that this could be what pushes our health services beyond the limit of what they can stretch to and, as a result deaths will jump up – and not just from Covid-19.

New Variant Impact

In my last post I highlighted the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 that is more infections (spreads more easily), but said that there was little evidence that it was any more fatal. Understanding what was going on was hampered at that point as we had hit the festive period and, with the best will in the world, everyone needs a break at some point. New data on hospital admissions, virus sequencing, case numbers were all missing or affected. Scientists studying aspects of Covid-19 were reminding themselves what their partners, kids, and pets looked like after what must have been a heavy year. Now the new information is coming out, as is the analysis by relevant experts.

There is a paper detailing this new variant by Public Health England which was published on 28/12/20. Much of the below is derived from that, but is backed up from many tweets and bits of evidence from the scientific community.

This new variant is know by a few names:

  • VOC 202012/01 – Variant of Concern identified in 2020 month 12, number 1
  • B.1.1.7 – the phylogenetic name of the variant (I think!)
  • 20B/501Y.V1 or simply 501Y.V1 – the identifier given by Nextstrain

B.1.1.7 has many mutations from the original SAR-CoV-2 virus (this STAT article states 17 mutations, the tracking page I mention below lists 17 SNP mutations, this overview by the CDC on VOC 201212/01 lists 20 SNPs and 3 deletions and seems to be the best source of information on this. I’ll explain all the mutations better in a later post) . Mutation is not unusual, viruses change all the time. Each time a virus is copied (and that is how viruses like coronaviruses reproduce, there is no sex, they are identical clones of their only parent) the RNA is copied and occasional mistakes are made and thus changes, mutations, happen. The most common change is a Single Nucleotide Polymorphism, or SNP. One letter of the 30,000 in the viral genome changes.

A single SNP change to the SARS-CoV-2 RNA does not seem to be enough to change the virus into a significantly more infective version (or more lethal, or more likely to infect children, or change it’s behaviour in a way to make it more dangerous). If it did, we would have seen this already – the virus has been so successful in spreading in humans and thus reproducing and so those SNPS occurring, that most individual SNP mutations that are possible will have happened by now (there is evidence for minor change by them though, but that’s for another time). It is going to be a combination of two or more changes I think that has altered the transmissibility.

B.1.1.7 has several changes to the gene that creates the spike protein.

The paper from Public Health England I reference reviews the data that was initially presented to the UK government (on around the 19th December I presume) and resulted in their initial analysis of the 21st, which this paper links to.  This review considers the degree to which the new strain transmits more easily and possible reasons why. It can  be summed up as saying:

  • This new variant is indeed spreading faster.
  • it is becoming the most dominant strain in all the areas it is in.
  • It’s ability to spread to others (secondary attack rate) is increased by about 55%.
  • It is not spreading faster as it is more successful in re-infecting people who have already had Covid-19.
  • There is no evidence it results in more hospital stays or is more fatal.

I’m not sure the evidence is yet firm that this new variant does not also increase the severity of the illness a little as there are too few cases to go on, but it does not like there can be a huge increase. Usual caveat, I’m no epidemiologist.

I’ve also looked at a paper by Nick Davies’ team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

They considered 4 possible methods by which the new variant (they use the VOC202012/01 name) could be causing the rapid spread of the new variant

  • A) Increased Transmissibility
  • B) avoids current immunity
  • C) Children being more susceptible
  • D) shorter viral generation time

As you can see from the graphs, the model based on (A) Increased Transmissibility fitted the date better than anything else.

You may be aware of the new variant in South Africa that is also more transmissible. This is not the same as B.1.1.7, for example, it does not have the 69/70 deletion mentioned in Public Health England paper that is used as a proxy to identify B.1.1.7 in the UK population (again, more information later on the details of the new mutation). So this deletion either is not key to the increased transmission or else there are two methods by which the transmissibility can be increased (now, that’s a worrying thought).

There has been a lot of other analysis and commentary from the scientific community to back up the hypothesis that B.1.1.7 spreads 50%-55% faster.

Why Is 50% Faster Spread So Significant?

Why is this significant? Wouldn’t 50% more lethal be more of a worry?

No. The reason an epidemic is so scary and has such an impact is down to exponential growth. To use an extreme example such as exists before a new disease is recognised and steps taken to control it, If 1 person infects 2 people who infect 4, 8,16,32… Ten duplications later and you are at 1,024 infected people. If each person infects 3 then it goes 1 person, 3, 9,27, 81…ten tripling’s is 59,049. If you know how many people each infected person will infect (the R number) and how long it takes for an exposed person to themselves become infectious, then you can calculate how quickly the disease will spread and grow. So the transmissibility is key.

Adam Kucharski put it better than I can (if you are on twitter and you are interested in Covid-19 science, if you are not already following Adam then I highly recommend you do, and then follow some of the people he follows). This is how he explained it:

Here in the UK the number of cases and, more importantly, hospital admissions have been shooting up. You cannot compare case from the spring to now as testing now is orders of magnitude improved compared to the shambles back in April. But hospital beds occupied is a very powerful metric and can be compared. Up to a point.

I showed a graph in my last post about how many people are ill in hospital with Covid-19, going up to 24th December. The below is the graph up until the 28th December. We still don’t have data for Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland beyond the 22nd December – but England on it’s own ( 20,426) is not far off matching the UK peak of 21,683 back on 12th April. If we optimistically only add on 1,727 for Wales, 1,045 for Scotland, and 451 for Northern Ireland (their figures for the 22nd) we are at 23,649. I’m seeing a lot of stuff on social media and the BBC news about hospitals running out of capacity, cancelling routine work, calling staff in from holiday (and remember, this is staff who have nearly all been pulling extra and double shifts for 9 months already). We suspect are approaching 100% hospital capacity for the NHS.

Patients in hospital with Covid-19 across the UK, 28/12/20

Update, 30/12/20 – we now have the Welsh & Northern Irish data to 28/12, Scotland & England to the 29th . The UK total for the 28/12 is 23,771 (slightly above my optimistic lower threshold of 23,649, as is to be expected. Northern Ireland shows a modest increase that could just be random variation, all three other nations show an increase.

Patients in hospital with Covid-19 across the UK, 29/12/20

 

 

 

100% Hospital Capacity is a Really, Really Bad Thing

I said that hospital beds occupied is a powerful metric up to a point. Why up to a point? At some point that metric stops increasing so fast or even at all – but not because of a lack of patients to treat, but because you are running out of capacity in your hospitals.

I’m sorry, I’m going to go on a bit of a rant here. The below is why I get so vexed at people saying “I need to go on holiday” or “I must have my nails painted” or decide it’s OK if they have a party or that we don’t need a lockdown.

If you get Covid-19 and are badly affected, you may well need supplemental oxygen. You may also need treating for various blood clotting conditions, or to stop your immune system over-reacting, and several other things. That can only be done in hospital. If it is done, most people treated survive (though some of course still sadly die). If you are not treated, you will die. As some of you know, I had personal experience of this late last year when influenza type A and pneumonia landed me in intensive care for a week, on very powerful CPAP ventilators. If I had not had that treatment, I would not be typing this (or anything). So we can (and do) treat and save many people with compromised breathing and the other things that come with Covid-19. Until we run out of trained hospital staff. It’s not beds per se that are the issue, or ventilators, or really any equipment. It is people who have the skills to run that equipment, monitor you, keep you ticking over and otherwise not-dead whilst supporting the broken parts of your body until they heal. Once the capacity of the health service is exceeded, they have to pick who dies. And of course, we do not just have Covid-19, hospitals are dealing with all the other sick patients we always have – car accidents, cancer, influenza, septicaemia, heart attacks…

I’ve seen the stuff by some people about how “only” 377 or so healthy, young people have died of Covid-19. Part of me can’t be bothered explaining to them why they are selfish, clueless idiots right now but what I can say is if we run out of hospital staff capacity, you can be as young and fit and bloody callous as you like but you will die if you need oxygen treatment and do not get it.

I’ve seen some tweets by people who say things like “well, just get more nurses and doctors”. I checked, they are not made in a factory. Training to be a nurse is not like going on a week-long course to learn to use a chainsaw. Doctors and nurses and radiologists and lab staff (and all the others people forget about who are vital to the NHS) are trained for many years. Being an ICU doctor or nurse is particularly technical and needs months or years of training ON TOP of being a standard doctor or nurse.

The UK was desperately short of all NHS clinical staff before Covid-19. One of my closest friends organises the lab rotas for a very large hospital and she never has enough people to fill the rotas. She has to beg and hassle people to do more than their fair share of weekend and night shifts. They constantly have not just one or two but a dozen or more open positions for staff. I’m not getting political here but there was a crisis in care long before the pandemic.

If you see figures saying ICU capacity is at 90% you would probably naturally think “well, they still have 10% spare, it’s fine”. It’s not. One of my first jobs was writing bed management software for hospital systems and teaching hospital staff how to use the software. The software was a god-send for them. A hospital bed is not just a bed. It’s a type of bed, and there are several types in hospitals. Some are for children, most are for adults, some are powered to help move the patient about, some are specialist for ICU (such as being able to pass air around incapacitated patients to reduce bed sores)… And beds move. For my spell in ICU I was initially admitted to A&E and held in a storage room as there was no spare capacity. They brought a suitable bed to me and squeezed it into the storage room. About 12 hours later, 6 or 7 nurses took the bed with me and a shit load of equipment through the hospital to the ward.

You have to know who is in which bed, the consultant & specialty treating them. For very, very good reasons, the specialist or someone in their group needs to approve a lot of what is done to you in a hospital. To administer a drug to a patient you have to find the bed they are in and you have no time to go wandering around the ward as you have 101 other things to do. The same is true of feeding the patient. You have to track when a patient moves (either with their bed or moving from one bed to another) and you need to know where you can move them to, so you need to know what beds are spare or, more likely, probably going to come spare. I worked on another part of the hospital system, “notify patient as dead”. It was horribly complex, lots of stuff has to happen when a patient dies, for example some lab tests get cancelled, others get created. The bed is noted as empty pending a deep clean. Sometimes, heartless though it sounds, the staff need to know when a bed is likely to become available via that route.

The people in charge of beds need to know ASAP when a bed is free so they can try and do all the juggling above that I mentioned. The fewer spare beds they have the harder it gets to make use of the few spare ones you still have and move people around efficiently. Or even inefficiently.

When I moved out of ICU it was a rush job. Someone needed one of the very most critical ICU beds (yes, there are tiers to what we non-medics think of as ICU), they felt able to move another person into my intermediate dependency bed as they were improving – IF they could get me out of it and into the Respiratory Medicine ward. Which they did, at about midnight. The sticking point was I needed to be isolated to I could not give someone with COPD influenza and finish them off. Another complication. It being night there were fewer staff so only 2 people could be spared to move me. Admittedly, less equipment came with me but half of it (including a heavy oxygen cylinder) was on the bed with me, I had hold of something on wheels, the 2 nurses somehow corralled the bed and other equipment.

The point I am making is that the closer a hospital gets to 100% capacity, the harder all that juggling becomes, and you actually end up having to move patients to other hospitals – and moving a sick patient to a different hospital is generally not in the best interest of the moved patient – or discharge patients who could really benefit from being there longer (but don’t need it as much as the person who is dying that they can’t find a bed for).

I’ve only ranted about beds. I have no idea how they keep track of other equipment, plan who is allocated to do what, how to cover for say a member of staff going ill, a major road traffic accident when all ICU is full…

If we do not see some sort of miraculous downturn in hospital admissions (and all indicators are against this happening) I’m expecting the UK to be in full national lockdown in a week, kids returning to schools cancelled. If we hit 100% hospital capacity and are not in a strict lockdown, then our government will have failed us in this crisis once more.

Even more distressingly, we may see avoidable deaths.

 

 

Friday Philosophy – Is The Problem The Small Things? August 7, 2020

Posted by mwidlake in ethics, Friday Philosophy, off-topic, rant, User Groups.
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Something has been bothering me for a while. In fact, I’d go as far as to say it’s been depressing me. It’s you. Well, many of you.

Well, it’s not MY problem!

What do I mean? Well I’ll give you an example. A week or so ago I went out in the car to get some shopping. A few minutes into the journey, as I go around a gentle bend, I see there is a car coming towards me – on my side of the road. I had to brake to give it space to get back over and I see it has swerved to avoid a branch in the road. As you can see in the picture, it’s not a huge branch, it covers less than one lane. I’m past it now so I go on to the shops and get my stuff.

30 minutes later I’m coming back. And I’m thinking to myself “I bet that branch is still there.” And it is. I can see it from maybe 300 meters back. The two cars in front of me barely slow down and they swerve past it. An oncoming vehicle that *I* can see coming, let alone the two cars in front of me, has to slow down for the swervers like I did. That slight bend means you get a much better warning of the obstacle from the side of the road it is on and as it is on your side, it’s really your responsibility so slow or even briefly stop, but the people in front of me just went for it. They did not care.

I did not swerve. I slowed down. And I put on my hazard lights, and stopped about 20 meters back from the branch. I double checked that no car has appeared behind me and I got out the car. In 20 seconds (including taking the snap), I’ve moved the branch off the road with no danger at all and I’m back to my car.

I know, you would have done the same.

Only no. No, you would not have.

Some of you would like to think you would have stopped and moved the obstacle.

I suspect most of you would claim, if asked, that you would have stopped and moved the branch.

And of course all of you would have slowed to avoid inconveniencing others.

But reality shows that nearly all of you would not.

As I left the scene, I was wondering how many people would have passed that branch in that 30 minutes I knew for sure this small branch had been an obstacle on the road. I’m going to let people going the other way off, as they would have to do a u-turn to come back to it, so how many people would have had to swerve past it?I know that road well, it would have been hmm, 4 or 5 cars a minute going past in one direction – certainly more than 3 cars, less than 10. So well over a hundred drivers would have seen that branch from a distance, most would have been able to safely slow and stop – and yet not one of them had. I have no idea how long the branch had been there, it was not too beaten up so maybe not long, but it could have been a couple of hours. It was easy to avoid – especially if you swerved with little concern for any on-coming traffic…

It turns out I’m the one in a hundred.

Are you thinking “well, it’s not my job to move branches of a road!”

So who’s job is it? And if you could label it as someone’s job (let’s go for someone in the “highways agency”) how do they get to know it needs doing? I don’t know about you but I see dozens of highways agency maintenance people on every journey I do, just cruising around looking for things that need doing. {sarcasm}.

When was the last time you saw something that needed doing in a public place and took the time to think about who should be told, try to contact them, get told to contact someone else, find out it’s not their job but are asked to ring Dave, who you do ring and he says thanks (before making a note to think about it, whilst probably muttering “this is not my job, I’ve got major roadworks to look after”). Hell, it’s easier to stop and move the branch.

Generally in life, in so many situations, I am constantly wondering why someone has not done X (or has done Y). Why don’t you reach for the jar in the shop the old lady can’t quite reach? Why don’t you hold the door? Why did you drop that litter when the bin is JUST THERE! That person  in front of you buying a parking ticket can’t find 10p in their purse to make the correct change? You have loads of 10p pieces… some in your hand already.

This is what is depressing me. Even though nearly everyone likes to think they are the nice person who will do a little for the common good, the reality is that most people won’t when it comes to it – but most people think we all should, and you tell yourselves you do the little things. You are telling yourself now, aren’t you? You are trying to think of the little things you have done for the common good. If you can think of a half dozen in the last month then you really are one of the good guys/gals. If you can only come up with a few…and actually most of them were ages ago… well, sorry but you are the problem.

The strange thing is that, having just insulted you all, as a group you lot are much more likely to be in the 1% than normal. Even though out of the general public not even 1 in 100 people would put in a little effort to move that branch, out of the people reading this, I’d say 10% would. Because I spend a lot of time in the Oracle user community, packed with people who give up their time, knowledge, even their holidays, to speak at conferences, help organise meetings, answer on forums, write blogs, answer questions on twitter, and all that stuff. Many of you reading this are active members of the User Community doing not just small things but often large things for the community. That’s why the community works.

To the rest of you, instead of liking to think you would move the branch or claiming you would (as everyone wants to be thought of as the nice guy/gal) just occasionally move the branch. Or pick that piece of litter up. Or do something small that cost you so little but it just would be nice if someone did it.

No one will thank you.

But you will know you did it. And you are becoming no longer part of the problem but part of the solution. I’m not asking you to give 10% of your salary to charity or give up an important part of your life, just do a bit of the small stuff.

If more of us do it, we will have a better world. If someone had moved that branch soon after it fell, I would not have had to  avoid some swerving dickhead, and the person I saw later would have not had to avoid people who could not even be bothered to slow down or stop briefly. And, in the worst case, that needless accident need not have happened. It really is as simple as spending 1 minute moving a branch.

Don’t be part of the problem, be part of the solution. It’s really, really, really easy.

 

COVID-19: The Current Situation in the UK and June. May 30, 2020

Posted by mwidlake in COVID-19, Perceptions, Private Life, rant, science.
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I’ve not said anything about Covid-19 for much longer than I expected, but really it has been a case of watching the coming peak come and go, pretty much following the pattern of Italy, Spain, Belgium and France. I plan to do a post soon which pulls together the current scientific position, but for now I wanted to record where we are and where my gut feeling (based as ever on reliable scientific sources and not so much on what the daily government updates would like us to think) says we will be in a month or so.

The number of UK recorded deaths where C-19 was present, and detected cases

We’ve not done very well in the UK. If you are based in the UK you may not be aware of the fact that most of Europe think we have,as a nation, been idiots – failing to learn from other countries, late to lock-down, lock-down was not strict enough, too early to open up, our PPE fiasco… I can’t say I can disagree with them. We have one of the highest deaths-per-million-population rates in Europe, exceeded only by Spain and Belgium. But it could have been worse. A lot worse.

I’m truly relieved my predictions in my last post were (for once) too pessimistic. I misjudged when the peak in deaths would be by over a week – it was 9 days earlier than I thought, happening around the 11th April. As a result of coming sooner, the peak was lower than my little model predicted. Even allowing for that, the increase in number of deaths did not mirror the increase in cases (I used the cases pattern as my template for deaths). I think this is because the UK finally started ramping up it’s testing rate. The more testing you do, the more of the real cases you detect, so some of the increase in cases was simply better testing and not continuing spreading. That’s what happens when the source of your metrics changes, your model loses accuracy.

Deaths are directly related to real case numbers, it does not actually matter how many cases you detect. This is part of why case numbers are a much poorer metric for epidemics, whereas deaths are better. The best metric is a random, large sample for those who have had the disease – but we still do not have reliable, large-scale antibody or similar tests to tell us this.

If you look at the actual figures and compare to what I predicted for the peak of deaths, I seem to have been pretty accurate. I said 1,200 to 1,500 around the 20th April and the peak was 1,172 in the 21st April. But I was predicting hospital deaths only. Up until 29th April this was the number reported each day but since then the daily number of deaths reported included community (mostly care home) deaths. The previous figures were altered to reflect this and the graphs to the right are based on these updated figures. Hospital deaths seem to have peaked at 980 on the 11th April, so I was wrong.

I think it is crucial in science and technology (and actually, just in general) that you be honest when you are wrong – even if (like in this case) I could made a fallacious claim to have hit the nail on the head.

The bottom line is, we are well past the first peak and it did not overwhelm the NHS. It got really close and our issues with personal protective equipment was a scandal and must have resulted in more illness and some avoidable deaths to our front-line NHS staff. But, apparently, saying so is Political.

All in all we followed the pattern of European counties that were impacted by Covid-19 before us and implemented similar country-wide lock-downs.

One difference between us and other European countries that have been hit hard is our tail of cases is thicker and longer. We have not been as rigorous in our lock-down as those other countries (e.g we did not have to have written permission to leave or enter an area and children were not utterly forbidden from leaving home, which are just two examples how our lock-down was softer). I know it might not feel like it, but we were not.

What really concerns me is that we are easing lock-down measures so soon in the UK. Our daily new case rate and number of deaths are both still really quite high. The figures always drop over the weekend, especially Sunday and Monday (due to the numbers reported being for the day before). Over the last 3 days (Wed to Fri) we averaged 1998 new cases and 371 deaths per day. If you think Covid-19 has gone away, every single day there are 371 families who sadly know different.

I understand that the economy is important, that unless things are being manufactured, services provided, money earned and spent, that a large part of our society is not functioning. Maybe I don’t really appreciate how important it is as economics has always looked more like a dark art based on greed than anything logical, but some people feel getting back to normal business is critical and the long-term impact of not doing so is potentially as serious as Covid-19.

I also know that not being able to go to places, eat out, have a drink in the pub, meet up with friends in a building or in more than small numbers is frustrating. For many, not seeing your family and loved ones who are not in your home is very upsetting.

I’m sure that parents are desperate for kids to go back to school (partly for education and partly as it turns out kids are a lot of work), couples need a bit of time apart, people are missing their jobs. Nearly all of us have never had to spend so much time with a very small number of other people.

But I’m also sure that what we don’t want is in 4-8 weeks to have to go into the same level of lock-down as we spent most of this spring in. And the next lock-down may be even more draconian as there is a difference now to where we were at the second week of March when we should have locked down first.

SARS-Cov-2 is now endemic and prevalent across the UK. It is everywhere.

At the start of an epidemic the disease is growing in a small number of places, so usually (such as was the case with MERS and SARS) you can contain it by strong isolation and tracking efforts in those areas it occurs, as most of the population are not exposed. This is why you cannot contain seasonal ‘flu epidemics by isolating people, it does not work if it is wide-spread enough. ‘Flu simply flows through the population and it does in some years kill a lot of people.

With Covid-19 right now, If our R(e) – the effective reproduction number – goes above 1 anywhere across the UK, Covid-19 cases will rapidly increase in that area. And with restrictions being lifted across the whole UK and in England especially, I am privately convinced the disease will burst fourth again in many, many places and it is going to go very wrong again. I think the government is being utterly disingenuous about the impact of opening up schools and my friends who are teachers and medics have no doubt this is a significantly more dangerous step than it is being sold as. It might be the right move, but lying about it’s potential impact is not helpful long-term.

Not only are we relaxing social distancing steps too early, but I feel the government has utterly bolloxed up (technical term meaning “done a jolly poor job of”) the messaging. As examples:

  • The very clear “Stay at Home” became the vacuous “Stay Alert”, which no one seems to be able to clearly define and every one seems to have a different interpretation of.
  • We were given contradicting and non-nonsensical rules such as you could see one family member from outside your household in the park, but you could have people come and view your house. So if you want to see your mum & dad at the same time, put your house up for sale and have them view it.
  • Parts of the UK (Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland) have said they were not consulted on changes, they do not agree with them, and they are doing their own thing. That’s not confusing to people is it?
  • The whole Cummings affair. Dominic Cummings did break the rules, he acted like a selfish idiot, he lied about what he did, he had pathetically stupid excuses (“I drove my child around in a car to test my eyesight” which shows he either does not care at all for other people’s safety or has too low an IQ to be allowed out on his own). The issue is not that one arrogant, self-important person decided the rules do not apply to him. It is that the government fail to understand that not sanctioning him is being interpreted by many to mean they can make up their own minds about which rules apply to them and which they can ignore. Continuing to say “look, get over it” is simply coming across as telling us all to bugger off.

To help steer us through this crisis, we really needed a government with both the mandate to introduce new rules and also the acceptance by most of the population of those rules, and at least acquiescence from the majority to put up with limitations placed upon us. What we have now is a not just the hard-core “we won’t be told what to do” people that would always be a negative factor in limiting the spread of a disease, but a large number of angry, confused, worried people across the country. Almost everyone I personally know in the UK feel angry, confused, worried, and mostly with a progressively declining respect for the government and their advice.

I know I’m not very good at understanding people, it does not come naturally to me. If someone does not think like I do, I can have a devil of a job working out why. But I’m pretty sure that here in the UK a lot of people are going to start saying “to hell with the lock-down rules, everyone else is ignoring them and I’ve not seen anyone die in front of me…”

I went to see my Mum this week. I had to drive 100+ miles to do it. Unlike in Dominic’s case, it’s allowed now and I have no Covid-19 symptoms. I took a mask, I took my own food, we sat in her garden (I got sunburn, so Covid-19 might not get me but skin cancer might). I assured myself she was OK and that her tech will keep working so we can stay in touch. And I felt a little naughty doing it.

But I made a conscious decision to do it now – as I think SARS-CoV-2 is about at it’s lowest prevalence in our population right now (end of May 2020) than it is going to be for months. Admissions and deaths are going down and I expect at least deaths to continue to do so for another week or two. Personally I am deeply worried that in 4 weeks time new cases, hospital admissions, and deaths will be going up again. I don’t want them to be but I’ll be (very happily) surprised if they don’t go up  – what we see in cases & deaths at any point in time is based on the level of spread one or two weeks ago respectively. I suspect that as I type our R(e) number is going up and will exceed 1 this week.

If you don’t agree with me, just keep an eye on what the scientists are saying. Some are already making noises of anxiety as an article on the BBC is already saying today. Scientists tend to make cautious statements such as “we do not think this is wise” or “we feel there is a danger in this choice of action”. It’s a normal person’s equivalent of screaming “Are you bloody idiots?!?”.  Once again, the experts are saying we should do one thing and the government are doing another. It’s not gone too well to ignore the scientists so far.

There is a T-shirt you can get at the moment, which I really must order a dozen of.

“All disaster movies start with someone ignoring a scientist”.

 

 

Friday Philosophy – Smart or Smart-Arse? October 20, 2017

Posted by mwidlake in Friday Philosophy, humour, Perceptions, rant.
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1 comment so far

(Note – this post is intended to be humorous, and also partly laughing at myself. Imagine a tone of “British, self-deprecating irony”…)

Many of you know what a “Smart-Arse” is. For those who do not…

A “Smart-arse” a person who is irritating because they behave as if they know everything or try to catch you out by misleading you.

A smart person will look at your problem and say something like “have you tried checking the array size?” and, 8 times out of 10, their input will help you solve your problem. It may not be THE answer but it makes you think about root causes.

A Smart-arse will say something more like “well, I would never have your problem as I would not have joined a company full of Java Nerds!!!”. Yeah, maybe that would have avoided my specific problem #1, but it is of no practical worth right now. .

You can usually pick out a smart-arse just by the tone of their voice. Think about the two situations above. The Smart person probably gave their advice in a quieter voice and with a passive or supporting manner. The Smart Arse person will usually have a higher, louder voice with a slightly sarcastic tone. Basically, in a superior or attention-seeking manner.

Another “Smart-arse” thing to do is to try to catch you out, in the misguided belief it makes them look cleverer than you.

In these situations always ask – “what is a Smart-arse hoping you won’t spot”

I’ll put my hand up right now. Sometimes, especially looking back on my past, I have been the smart-arse. (And, as humans, we hate the fault in others that we see in ourselves). And I bloody hate smart-arses. And I keep seeing smart-arse crap all over the internet. Let me give you an example. Look at the figure on the right.

This is the perfect example of the “Smart-Arse” question. You are faced with what looks like a simple logic puzzle and normally the tag line is something like “93% of people will get this WRONG!!! – Only Geniuses can solve it!!!!!!!”. They never cite a basis for the “93%” as it is as utterly made up and is as asinine and bloody annoying as whatever trick is in the post. What they are doing is giving you what looks like a genuine puzzle that needs a bit of thinking about but most of us can solve (though not you Dave, you really are an idiot). BUT! But they have hidden a detail. The are purposefully leading you astray so they can go “Aaa-Haaaa!!! Noooo! You forgot to check for the closed pipes!” (check tank 5 to 2). Or whatever the trick is.

This is “Smart-Arse”. It is not checking if you can solve a problem, if you are smart. It is checking if they can con you. Checking if they can give you a load of information and then go “Ahh HA!! Got ya!!! You did not check for the tiny bit of info we hid from you!!! O-hohohohho we are so clever!!!!”

Well, I have news for you, Smart-arse. You are a bloody idiot. Your answer is wrong, as any fool can see. (Bear with me on this…)

More boxes, same smart-arse shit

You may have seen other “tests” like this such as the one to the left – a bit more complex but the question is the same, which one fills up first.
In my head my response is always “which one fills up… *first*????”.

First! That is my response. Not which one but the fact that the question itself is wrong. It should be “which one fills up” full stop, as “any fool can see”. Not which one fills up first.

I better justify that claim.

Look at this second example, clearly labelled with the icon of utmost smarts Mr Einstein (who, I bet, could not plumb a toilet let alone all these pipes as, back in his time, there were no push-fittings – just copper and solder. I think he once said he was rubbish at practical tasks). They think the key “got ya” is that the pipe from C to D is blocked so water goes from C to J. And then from J to L, as the pipe to I exits higher than that to L. One sneaky trick and then a bit of good physics – it is not the input but the output that counts. So water pours into L and then to F – but not H as, again, a sneaky block has been inserted. So F fills up.

And only F fills up!!!

As as soon as it is full it overflows. It overflows below the height of any other buckets the fluid had flown through – and so no other bucket will fill. Their initial question is flawed. “Which will fill first” indicates one will fill second. No other bucket will fill second. The question is not logical! Bloody idiots.

I can’t say why I initially was struck by the fact that only one bucket would fill when I saw the first example of this, even before I spotted the blocked pipes, but we all think in different ways. It does not make me smarter, just different. I’m interested to see if any of you can point out a flaw in my logic above though as I have a sneaking suspicion I could still be wrong.

However, this is not the major flaw… (I told you that I was also an utterly insufferable smart-arse).

Figure 2 has a drip filling the A tank, figure 1 has a gushing tap filling tank 1. Now ask a simple question. No matter if the tap is gushing or dripping, can the pipe out of tank A (or 1) empty the water faster than the tap supplies it? Well, if the tap is dripping you would say “yes” – but if these tanks are 5mm cubed and the pipe out is less than 1mm thick then no! No scale is given. And in fig 1 the tap is gushing. Have any of you had a shower where the plug hole drains slower than the shower produces water? After 2 or 3 minutes your feet are in a shallow bath and if you keep the shower running it overflows into the rest of the bathroom.

With figure 1, the one with the gushing tap, my brain says that tank 1 will fill as the tap supplies water faster than it will exit through the pipe to tank 5. Tank 1 will fill and piss water all over the shop and whatever goes down the pipe to 5 will eventually fill that tank. Which of tanks 1 and 5 fills first is “it depends” (the classic answer to most I.T performance questions). The question is how much slower is the flow out of the pipe from tank 1 – if it is, on average, above half the rate of the tap flow then tank 5 will actually fill first. In any case, you have soaked the bathroom floor and the people in the flat below are banging on the front door…

With that new idea in your head, if you turn up the tap in figure 2 you can now see that which tank fills first is probably A or.. C – depending on the max flow out of the pipes (all pipes are the same bore so flow rate is the same, increasing header pressure in each tank as they fill allowing…) I think it might be C as it’s outflow is higher in relation to the tank top than B or C…

So depending on the tap flow rate, the drain pipe flow rate and the relative height of the clear output pipe it could be…. absolutely NOT the answer of the Smart-Arse original poster. That is the problem with smart-arses! They are so fixed on their clever “gotcha” answers that they stop thinking of the real world.

And don’t get me started on those images where bananas are added to cans of beer and divided by a plate of cakes, designed to look like some sort of Algebra test. Always they are being smart-arse. They try and hide the introduction of multipliers where all the first examples are addition, or you need to count the number of items, or yellow is 3 and green is 6, or it is in base 23. I was going to include an example (again, a really wrong one) but I’ll save that for another week when I am also in a bad mood.

And, of course, I am a “smart-arse” for pointing this all out. Did I say how much I dislike smart-arses?

I promise you, when you start looking for the smart-arse aspect to all those “are you smart enough” bollocks things on social media it just turns into so much blargh and you can either answer them easily or just decide you can’t be bothered being misdirected. And you can use that saved time for looking at funny kitten videos or, I don’t know, doing some productive work?

Is there any other relevance to your working life? Maybe. Next time your management structure asks you a seemingly benign question about what you are doing this weekend or when you think you are on leave (hang on, “think”?), or how minor will be the impact of a small change to how the business functions to the application you are developing – just switch on the bulb with “smart-arse” painted on it. They are asking you a question where they are expecting you to think in the clear, simplistic way most of us would. Now ask what the bloody hell they are up to.

Return from The Temple of Apple June 22, 2015

Posted by mwidlake in Private Life, rant.
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I doubt many of you are on tenterhooks as to how I got on with my phone today {after my << rant last Friday}. But I’m going to tell you anyway.

Overall, Apple have gone some way to redeeming themselves.

I got myself down into Cambridge this morning to visit the Apple Store, at my allotted slot of 10:10 {I later witnessed someone attempting to be 15 minutes early for their slot – and they were asked to go and have a coffee and come back. The customer was unimpressed as they had lugged some huge Apple monitor in with them}.

I have to say, walking into the store was somewhat like entering some form of modern temple. The clean lines, the two parallel runs of “desks” with precisely & spaciously laid-out items to worship, lit by discrete banks of lights in the ceiling. Down the center was a clear path to allow you to move deeper into the hallowed space, with a scattering of worshipful believers moving between the icons. And, at the end, a cluster of acolytes in blue tops gathered around and before the “Apple Genius Bar” alter.

I approached the alter…err, service desk… and was very soon approached by an acolyte holding a prayer tablet (iPad mini 3) in front of them. My name was on the list, my time was now. I would be granted an audience. I was directed to a stool to one side to await my turn.

Thankfully, the wait was short and ended when Dave came over, Dave turned out to be a friendly, open and helpful chap who managed to take the edge off what was frankly a bit of an OTT ambiance if you ask me. So far my impression had been that (a) you can see why the kit is so expensive to support this sort of shop frontage and space-to-item ratio, something I had only really come across before in Bose shops & car dealerships and (b) it’s just a shop selling I.T. kit, get over yourselves. Dave (not his real name, I’m afraid I forgot his real name, but he looked like a Dave – and had a great beard) listened to my potted history of the battery woes and upgrade deaths, looked over the phone briefly and then plugged it into one of the banks of MACs. It pulled up the ID of the phone and {Huzzah!!!!} set about blatting everything on it and reloading the OS I think. It took a few minutes (I read my paper magazine – “New Scientist”) and then the phone rebooted…. and put up the Apple icon… and thought about it. I could see Dave thinking “this is taking a bit longer than normal”. Anyway, the thing finally came alive.

We chatted about what the root cause could be as he said he had not heard of anyone having multiple upgrade issues and it just locking like this. He went and asked a more senior acolyte (perhaps already in the priesthood) and his opinion was that it might be a faulty motherboard – in which case all bets were off and I’d have to basically buy a new phone for £200. Dave said I might as well not bother and put the money towards getting a nice, new iPhone 6, as they were only £500 or so. I wonder what the Apple shop staff get paid to think £500 is no big shakes.

Meanwhile, Dave had verified the phone battery was indeed covered by the recall and it would be two hours to complete the work. Was I happy to get that done today? Sure, I’m happy to drink coffee and eat a bun somewhere for 2 hours. So off I went. And came back (witnessing the taking to task of a customer arriving before their time – they did let them leave the monitor behind in the end). My phone was presented back to me, working, and I just had to sign on a tablet. Sorry about using the indelible marker pen, guys. I took a photo of the temple and made a quick test call outside the shop to ensure all was OK – and it was. And apart from the brief suggestion of buying a new iPhone 6, no financial cost had been incurred (except the park & ride in, cost of coffee & bun and a lost morning).

I was soon back home and ready to restore my backup from last week. I plugged in the phone, iTunes recognised it, ran the restore… and the phone is no different – none of my contacts, no change to icons, layout or background, nothing – but now iTunes says it does not recognise the device. Ohhhh shit. Oh, and the photo of the Apple Temple is gone (it was going to be at the start of this update). A couple of hours later and trying many things, I think I know what the issues are and maybe were:

1) The device is just a bit dodgy and sometimes/often the connection with iTunes just ends (I’ve swapped cables, I know it is not that) .
2) It would not restore the backup with “Find My iPhone” running – but due to (1) it usually did not get so far as telling me that. I wonder if updates would fail for the same reason? They were very insistent I turn off the feature before I went into the shop, but of course with a locked up phone I could only do this at the web end.

I turned off the feature on the phone, ran the restore again and this time it completed and left me with a phone that worked and looked like it did a week ago.

So I eventually got the phone restored and it works as well as it did – but hopefully with more battery life. It will be interesting to see if the reception issues are any better. I kind of doubt it. It’s now at iOS 8.3 as well. Deep Joy.

My final conundrum now is that, given that my phone contract that partially paid for the phone in the first place ended a couple of months back, do I stick with this device and hope all is now OK? Or do I spend more money replacing something that is only just over 2 years old? And do I get anything but an iPhone? After all, both my wife’s iPhones have worked OK and they are nice when working. But I’m not a member of the Apple Congregation and have no desire to join.

One thing I do know. I won’t be putting the old Samsung phone I’ve had to fall back on away just yet.

Friday Philosophy – Flippin’ Technology June 5, 2015

Posted by mwidlake in Friday Philosophy, off-topic, Perceptions, rant.
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Sometimes I think I would have been a Luddite or a member of other groups who have trashed new technology in frustration. Some days, I can just scream at it. You would think having worked in Information Technology for so long would make me more of a fan, but it actually makes me worse – as I know there is no need for there to be so much wrong with the electronic dross we all have to deal with day-to-day. And if I, someone who has used (heck, even programmed) computers for 3 decades, have trouble with these damned things, how frustrating must “normal” people find it?

Tesco Challenge - original on RevK Rant's blog

Tesco Challenge – original on RevK Rant’s blog

Take this morning’s source-for-a-rant. Self checkouts in supermarkets. I had popped into Tesco to get the weekend’s rations of baked beans, wine and cat food and there were large queues for all manned (though, I should more correctly say, mostly womanned) tills. And almost no queue for the self-service ones. We all know why almost no queue for the self-service ones, most of us hate them. But I had to get back home for a UKOUG conference call and there was very little chance the three-people-deep queues would be negotiated in time, so I manned up and went to one of the vacant screens.

Have I mentioned I’ve been using computers since before Wayne Rooney, Keira Knightley or Michael Phelps were born? So I have some affinity and experience to navigating screens of information. But, like all of theses devices, using them is painful. Given they are designed to be used by everyone including idiots, why is the “UX” so low? Why does the important information appear at different spots in the screen at different times? Why does there seem to be no button to press for a simple, key-word triggered guide (“How to weigh Veg?” Oh, look up there, press the correct icon, look down there and press another and then finally click over here to say “yes I really did ask you to weigh some bananas” – that would be nice). Why does the Waitrose one make me swipe my card to pull up my scanned items but insist I shove the card up the slot to pay? Plus all the times you have to get some human to come over and confirm you are over 18 (I need to be 18 to buy expanding foam?!?) or don’t look suicidal. I’m not being funny but the age check is just not needed, if I am using a credit card it can know I am 18 or over (you cannot you have a UK credit card under 18, partly as you are not allowed to sign up for a credit agreement below that age and if I am using someone else’s credit card, me buying a bottle of wine is the least of the potential issues). To give them their due, at least our local Tesco (unlike many other stores I have used around here) have someone on hand to constantly swipe, press, tap and harass the machines into playing correctly.

I can’t believe how badly these self service checkouts work. I can’t believe the companies have not tested them extensively with real people (I know, they claim to, but then I’ve seen “user system testing” in big banks and it is shockingly poor). How can they think such terrible systems are good for business? That people still insist on queuing for checkouts with real people rather than use them must tell the companies something! Why can’t these systems be better designed. Why are they so painful to use? It can’t be me. Maybe it is me….

Next rant. My internet & email supplier. Hi BT. BT, you are crap at running your internet & email service. I’ll only mention in passing the regular episodes of slow internet, the times mail seems to struggle to keep moving, the harassing emails to buy more allowance as I am reaching my limit…for the prior month (“HI BT, I think I might pop back in time and download 15 films last March, can I have more allowance for than as I’d used over half my limit”) – but I am going to complain over the fact that for the last 5 weeks now, each weekend you stop accepting valid connection requests from my Laptop – but allow them from my iPhone. So my account/pwd is working fine. But no, from the PC you tell me I have to validate my account. So I log on to the web site and as soon as I put in my details you tell me I have to change my password as there has been too many failed attempts at access my account? Well, if they failed, I chose a decent password maybe? Trying to force me to change it is likely to make me change it to something simpler maybe? Especially as this is the fourth time this month… but then, usually the system fails to actually process my password change and just hangs. My iPhone still keeps working with the old details and, usually by the next day, the errors have gone and I can access my mail with my old details with a real machine again too. My conclusion has been that it’s their software screwing up. Each. And. Every. Weekend.

It’s got worse, it now fouls up some workdays too. And I made an interesting discovery. When I log in to the web site to validate myself, if I put in a password of “scr3wy0uBT” – it accepts it and puts me into the Change Your Password screen exactly the same as before. No, my password is not “scr3wy0uBT” {it rejected it when I tried…}. So top security there. Whatever is happening, it’s just…..pants {UK phrase, it means “utterly rubbish”. Pants are not trousers, they are undergarments, you strange Americans.}

What is BT doing wrong to have this problem keep happening? Is this a good “UX” experience for me and all the other people who seem to have similar issues? Is it so hard to sort this out?

What was the third rant? Oh yes. Windows 8. Too many people before me have vented spleen and given pieces of their mind on Windows 8 for me to be able to add any more to the pile, but what I cannot fathom is, as soon as they got the almighty ass-kicking that they did for ballsing up the Start Button/Menu, why did they not in the next version just put it straight back as it was?. Or put out and advertise a simple “patch” to put back what millions of people were screaming they wanted back? All I can think is someone’s ego was too large to wave their hands in the air and say “Oh boy, did we make a dog’s dinner of that – let us help improve your “UX” and our reputation by fixing that straight away”.

Final rant. Games. Computer Games. I like running around shooting things. It gets rids of some of the IT-In-Daily-Life anger. But I am not very good at it and my broadband connection is slow and a bit laggy, so I am not interested in running around shooting things with friends. The same broadband issues mean I also don’t want to spend 4 hours downloading a game, I want to buy it in a floppy disc…..I mean CD…. Errr, DVD… and play it. So I went to this place called a “shop” and I bought a game on media in a box and checked the packaging. No where did it state I have to have an internet connection. I get the DVD out (hmm, there are actually three), put it in the machine and 30 mins later the software is loaded. And now it FORCES me to register with some crapola online gaming site to register my copy (like, if I had a bootleg version that would not be the first bit they strip out) and that takes an hour to download it’s own shitty software. That done, it will let me fire up the game – that immediately bombs out to download the latest patch (which I think it the crapola online site’s version) and that takes two hours as it is obviously much, much more than a patch. I suspect it is the whole damned game again. This is not a “UX” I wanted and, you can bet, next time I buy a game, crapola online gaming company is one thing I will be looking to avoid. It does not help that said game won’t fire up without logging into said game site or making me watch a minute of adverts about who wrote the game on who’s graphics card using what game engine. Thankfully a few minutes on the net explained how I could avoid all of that. But why do I have to take steps to stop these companies annoying me and, this is the bit that confuses me, what makes these companies think I’ll be impressed by being repeatedly exposed to their adds that I don’t want to see? I’ll just despise them a little bit more each time.

I just don’t get it. The number one thing any IT system needs to achieve is User Acceptance (as I have said before, if you check the link). Why do so many large companies miss this and inflict on the world a seriously sub-standard experience of IT and technology? If someone like me who has driven a screen, a keyboard and a mouse for 3 decades, understands some of the limits to IT and must have at least some brains in his skull, if I get endlessly caught out, befuddled and simply screaming-out-loud-frustrated by crap IT, how is my poor old mum (and everyone’s poor old parents) supposed to cope?

I’m going to become a Lumberjack. Chainsaws do not have screens and keyboards.

No I.T. Hassles Here

No I.T. Hassles Here

SBC June 26, 2014

Posted by mwidlake in humour, off-topic, rant.
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When I was about 14 or 15 years old I had this idea that I could create a company selling stuff and make a fair amount of money at it, very easily. What prompted these thoughts were advertisements that attempted to persuade you to buy things that were not at all special or unusual or even good, but the ads claimed that they were in fact fantastic and desirable and having them would significantly improve your life. Often the ads were for really quite rubbish things. It was blatantly obvious that, whilst no factual lies were uttered, the promise of the sun always shining, the big smile on your face, the family joy (with mandatory cute dog) and the inner glow that comes from the product were ludicrous. The product was not going to do that, the whole underlying premise of these adverts were ludicrous lies.

In particular, I was struck by breakfast cereal advertisements.

When I was a kid I had most of the main brands and I can tell you, a bland product based on flattened corn, puffed wheat, mashed wheat, wheat in long strands woven into a small hard cushion, abused oats or any other tortured grain was fine to stop you feeling hungry before being booted out the house to walk to school – but it was not actually adding to the joy in my life. They were OK. Actually, without the sugar and the milk they were a bit shitty. And I knew they were cheap.

This summed up many products – not at all exciting, nothing special, in fact a bit crap. But they did the job and they were cheap.

So why not sell them as such? would people not prefer the honesty of a product and advertisement that fundamentally said “buy this because it is shitty but cheap”? I would have, I would have loved the base honesty of the proposition and not having to wonder why grey-brown food that tasted only slightly better than cat litter was not making me smile and the sun shine. (I was fine about not having the dog though.)

So I was going to create a company called SBC Limited that made basic, cheap stuff that you had to have and that it was ludicrous that anyone was telling you it would improve your life. Shitty But Cheap Limited. Breakfast Cereal would be one of the products for sure.

Role forward about 10 years and I created my first company, as most computer contractors in the UK do, back in 1995. Guess what I was going to call it? Yep, SBC Limited. But my wife took a firm stance (and by this I mean she set her feet a good foot and a half apart, the better to give her purchase as she slapped sense into me) and said I could not do this, as I would be incapable of not telling potential clients what SBC limited stood for.

Of course, I now realise that my outlook on things and sense of humor is not universally shared and, sadly, there are a lot of dull people who are swayed by those facile advertisements. My company to sell fundamentally bland but cheap morning foods would probably have failed. That and the Swiss Banking Corporation or SBC Telecomm or, more likely as I reside in the UK, the Scottish Borders Council might have got in touch to object.

But imagine my joy today when I was sent a potential job by SBC Recruitment!

And the icing on the cake was the job was for an APEX developer with HTML 5 proficiency. No mention of those skills on my CV, my CV makes it pretty clear that I am a DBA-type, so a fairly shitty attempt by the agency to fill the needs of the client. So presumably the recruitment company pretty much matches my intention for a company called SBC…

🙂

(* Note to lawyers, SBC Recruitment could be the best agency in the country, this post is humorous. But I really was not at all suitable for the job, very poor targeting).

Off Topic Rant – Olympics Athletics Annoyance August 3, 2012

Posted by mwidlake in humour, off-topic, rant.
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I’m very much enjoying the current Olympics, the achievements and drama by so many competitors from all over the world in different events,  and the coverage provided by the BBC  – when they can keep narrative and vision together and they are not asking tired competitors who have just done their all daft questions like “how do you feel now” {I’d love some of them to reply “Knackered, just sod off OK!”}

However, a concern I have had for weeks seems to be panning out. For athletics I think we will see running. And more running. With running thrown in. Running, running, running. with a light scattering of everything else if there is UK interest. What vexes me is that most of this “running” is not even actual running!

I do not know what it is like in other countries but when an Athletics event is covered in the UK the broadcasters seem to regard anything that is not running as, well, Mhhh! There is a lot more going on, guys, and I would like to see a lot more of the throwing, chucking, jumping, swinging, vaulting and basically things other than running.  Don’t get me wrong, the races are thrilling and I am eager to watch them. But instead of showing the runners come out, showing you each one, watching them prepare, wait as they settle down, showing the race – then showing it you again. And agin in slow motion… Slow motion from the side. Slow motion from above. Last 30 meters in slow motion from the front… The start in slow motion… the whole race focused on the UK person… The competitors wandering about after…asking the person who came 6th if they enjoyed it and would they like to have done better….

All this for a heat! We get this for each heat for short races and meantime lots of other stuff is going on that is just as interesting as the actual race and way, way more interesting than the fluff around the race.

How about, cut 75 percent of that fluff and show us a good few minutes of the hammer? The long jump, the triple jump, the javelin, the pole vault. Not just the 2 or 3 favourites {and when no runners can be found by the camera), but you know, some of the other competitors and people achieving personal best or falling over.

I desperately hoped that with 20 plus channels they could use two on athletics. One on running and all the fluff around it and one on Everything Else that cuts to the running for the, you know, actual running bit along.. But it seems not, at least not yet. *sigh*.  I often wonder why the UK broadcasters call it athletics and not just Running.

I’m actually lucky enough to be going to the stadium this evening. I plan to really enjoy watch things as well as running.

Oh, can I tie this up to the world of Oracle? How about, Oracle tuning is like broadcasting Athletics. If you only concentrate on SQL tuning you are missing 75% of what you could achieve. So running is like SQL tuning. Sort of.

You Will Be Our Slave – Err, no, I Won’t May 27, 2012

Posted by mwidlake in contracting, Friday Philosophy, rant.
Tags: , , ,
10 comments

For the sake of current clients, this posting has been time-shifted.

I’m looking at the paperwork for a possible new job in front of me. Document seven out of 13 is the Working Time Directive Waiver. It’s the one where you sign on then dotted line saying your proposed new client can demand more than 48 hours of work a week out of you. {This may be UK or European Union specific but, frankly, I don’t care}.

I’m not signing it. For one thing, I doubt the legality of the document under EU law – especially in light of the issues the UK government had with this and junior doctors {who often, and still do, end up making life-deciding decisions on patients when they are too tired to play Noughts and Crosses, having worked 80 hours that week}. For another, well, I don’t give a damn. I ain’t signing it.

Now, I’ve just completed about 60 hours this week for my client. Not a problem at all, something needed doing, I could do it and so I have. I have done, am doing and will continue to do long weeks for clients when there is a business need and it fits in with the rest of my life and it is not a chronic situation {chronic is a medical term that means “long lasting and on-going”}.

If I am doing 60 hours plus every week, that means I am trying to do 2 people’s job at the same time and doing both of them badly. I don’t care how great I am at doing what I do, if it is 60 hours each and every week, I’m doing it badly because I am too stressed and tired to be doing it well. Also, where is the rest of my life? I have no “rest of my life”.

If my client is asking me to do 60 hours this week and I say “no” and they sack me under the Working Time Directive waiver – that means it is not a request, it is an enforcible demand. I am their slave. Nope. Not happening. It is best all round if it is acknowledged up front before I arrive on site that the client may ask and I may well say yes – but I can say no.

I know, some of you will be reading this and saying “but I need my job and if that is what it takes, I do it”. Well, I’ve worked for 20+ years and I’ve realised that (a) there are organisations that don’t abuse you and (b) you actually get little real payback for those ridiculous hours. But it can ruin your non-work life, even your family life. I don’t need any individual job and I am bloody well not playing those games any more. Employment in a modern, democratic society is supposed to be a mutual agreement and, if is it not, I ain’t playing. That is my small win for all those years of grind and I’m insisting on it.

I know, some of you will say “look, it never comes to anything, just sign it and ignore it like the rest of us”. No. If you are right, it is a corporate lie and is not required. And, to my detriment, I know you are wrong and sometimes there is an attempt to enforce it. If you cannot get me to do the 60 hours by asking and explaining, either you do not have a valid reason {and history proves I am an utter push-over to a half-reasonable request} or there is a reason very important to me why I can’t comply. If you try and insist, you really are treating me like a slave. That empty space? That’s me having gone for a looong walk.

I am not signing a document saying “you can demand I work over 48 hours any and all weeks you like”. Your are not signing a form saying “I can demand any time off I like week in and week out”. All contracts have a clause saying “this is not working between us, we will curtail the agreement”. We will use that if need be, not a bullying document that says I am your slave.

I am not signing.

Rant – Unique means UNIQUE! Argh! April 22, 2012

Posted by mwidlake in rant.
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I’m not a die-hard “Queen’s English”, “thou shalt not split infinitives” type but I am sick of people miss-using the word Unique.

The word unique means being one of a kind, the only example, the singular occurrence, the absolute only one. One. Singular. Get it? Still don’t get it? Well it means….unique! As a word that has only one unequivocal meaning, “unique” pretty much bloody well is it, by it’s absolute definition. It’s a yes/no situation. If you are unique in some respect, it means you are the only one example.

Now we lot in the database world should be bang on certain about this, what with Unique Keys and the like, and you would expect that other group of pedantic types – scientist – would be sticklers for the word as well. But no, last week I had someone who I thought was a good, solid IT person ask me “how unique” a situation was, I’ve just seen a scientist on TV describe a rock formation as “quite unique”. You can’t BE “quite unique”. You can be unusual, you can be quite rare, you can be uncommon. They all mean one of a few or a bit more blagh than usual. Unique means…The One. I can’t even think of another word that means “unique” in the way that word means. “One” and “Only” and “Singular” are close, but they all indicate something is unique. You cannot have a situation that is “quite ‘the only one'”. It is the only one or it is not the only one. Tick or cross. If you claimed a situation was unique only for someone to point out that it had happened before they would say “aha! So, it is not unique”.

It would be less of a linguistic stupidity to ask “how dead is the parrot – a bit dead or a lot dead or quite dead”. The parrot is in a binary state, dead or not. {As a biologist you can actually argue about this, but most of us accept the yes/no state of dead}. It is NOT “quite dead”.

Is Usain Bolt’s 100 meters fastest time Unique? Yes. He’s the fastest, not one of the fastest, not “fairly world record holding”.

Would it make sense to say “I have the fairly only stamp of it’s kind in my possession”? No. If someone said “this set of events have approximately never happened before” you would think “huh?” and ask for clarification – maybe ask “do you mean it’s a unique set of circumstances?” and would expect a yes or no answer. Only no, I would half expect “fairly unique”. Arrrgghh!!!